Untitled DocumentModeling agricultural water consumption under socio-political scenarios in the Lower Rio Grande Valley
Macro Theme Area:
Integrated Modeling [Project ID: M36]
PI:
Juan Valdes
CO-PI(s):
N/A
Basin focus:
N/A
Specific area in
basin /
field sites:
N/A
Summary/Goals: An agricultural model was developed to determine how different scenarios impact agricultural water use and total consumption in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The model quantifies changes in cropping mix, net profits and water consumption as a result of changes in commodity prices. Cotton, corn, grain sorghum, sugarcane, and a category for all other crops produced in the LRGV are included in the model. Inclusion of price elasticity for each commodity allows for estimation of changes in cropping mix in response to commodity price change.
Activities and outcomes during past year:
Major challenges included the lack of available data at the county level, including water use for each crop, gross agricultural sales and prices and quantities of water transfers from the agricultural to municipal sectors. These data were collected, estimated and calculated based on extensive telephone interviews with professionals at the Texas Water Development Board, the Rio Grande Watermaster's Office, and county level extension programs.
Plans for the upcoming year:
Plans for 2008 include analysis of the following scenarios: : 1) increased agricultural prices due to increased ethanol demand; 2) increased drought and resulting water resource constraints; 3) changes in the farm program and resulting loan deficiency payments; and 4) potential changes in NAFTA.
