Untitled DocumentLinking past, present and future: Integrating tree rings, instrumental records and GCM in scenarios for the US southwest
Macro Theme Area:
Integrated Modeling [Project ID: M33]
PI:
Holly Hartmann
CO-PI(s):
N/A
Basin focus:
N/A
Specific area in
basin /
field sites:
N/A
Summary/Goals: This project is funded under a Center-Directed Initiatives grant through the Water Sustainability Program and reports on a fiscal year basis.
Decision makers increasingly recognize that climate is an important source of uncertainty and potential vulnerability in long-term planning for the sustainability of water resources (Hartmann, 2005). Tree-ring reconstructions of paleo-streamflows provide unique perspectives on long-term climate variability, indicating that droughts over the past several hundred years have been more intense, regionally extensive, and persistent than those reflected in the instrumental record. Global climate models (GCMs) provide another unique perspective on long-term trends related to global warming, indicating that warmer temperatures in the Southwest over the coming decades are highly likely, with a concomitant likelihood for increased stress on water supplies due to impacts on snowpack water storage, evapotranspiration demand, soil moisture, and streamflow, even with increases in annual precipitation.
Activities and outcomes during past year:
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Plans for the upcoming year:
Decision makers increasingly recognize that climate is an important source of uncertainty and potential vulnerability in long-term planning for the sustainability of water resources (Hartmann, 2005). Tree-ring reconstructions of paleo-streamflows provide unique perspectives on long-term climate variability, indicating that droughts over the past several hundred years have been more intense, regionally extensive, and persistent than those reflected in the instrumental record. Global climate models (GCMs) provide another unique perspective on long-term trends related to global warming, indicating that warmer temperatures in the Southwest over the coming decades are highly likely, with a concomitant likelihood for increased stress on water supplies due to impacts on snowpack water storage, evapotranspiration demand, soil moisture, and streamflow, even with increases in annual precipitation.
