Untitled DocumentDynamic simulation modeling and water banking for the Rio Conchos basin
Macro Theme Area:
Knowledge Transfer [Project ID: K02]
PI:
Juan Valdes
CO-PI(s):
Javier Aparicio, Steve Stewart
Basin focus:
Rio Conchos, Rio Grande
Specific area in
basin /
field sites:
RC
Summary/Goals: The Conchos decision support system (DSS) is designed to help managers understand the relationships between various reservoir operations policies, economic activity, and the ability to meet international water agreements. The DSS is comprised of a semi-distributed regional dynamic simulation model operating on a monthly time step that tracks water deliveries and crop production coupled with input-output relationships to generate measures of economic impacts due to reservoir operations for the Conchos Basin in Chihuahua, Mexico. Outputs from the model include deliveries of water to the major irrigation districts in the Conchos Basin, changes in crop production, deliveries of water to the US as well as primary and secondary economic effects.
Activities and outcomes during past year:
We have been working on the application of the Drought Frequency Index for optimizing water discharges from multiple reservoirs based on the Conchos five-reservoir system, from which we expect to have deliverables next spring. For the Lower Rio Grande Valley, returns to unit inputs of water were calculated for the major agricultural crops. It was found that the highest returns to water inputs were associated with the most highly subsidized crops. Relevant agricultural policies have been reviewed, and analysis on the subsidized value of irrigation inputs is underway. Preliminary results of these projects were presented in the SAHRA annual meeting 2006. In 2007, a comprehensive agricultural model was developed to evaluate changes in agricultural water consumption under the following scenarios: : 1) increased agricultural prices due to increased ethanol demand; 2) increased drought and resulting water resource constraints; 3) changes in the farm program and resulting loan deficiency payments; and 4) potential changes in NAFTA and subsequent price effects.
Plans for the upcoming year:
In the next period we will intend to couple climate and econometric models to study drought scenarios and recommendations on water use policies for agriculture and urban demands in the LRGB.
Organization Involvement:
Research on droughts and dynamical modeling of Conchos and Bravo/Grande River: Drought characterization, drought preparedness studies, integrated water resources management.
Shared Resources / Joint Activities:
Human resources: research time from staff at IMTA.
Computational resources IMTA/UA, internal budget at IMTA. Joint authorship of papers on the subject
